Waist and biceps - Predictors of mortality risk

In older men, waist size and muscle mass as measured by mid-arm muscle circumference provide a more accurate picture of their mortality risk than body mass index (BMI) alone. As people age they typically lose muscle mass and gain belly fat. These changes mean BMI may not provide an accurate picture of obesity and overweight in older people. Thus, both belly fat and muscle mass are considered as more precise predictors of mortality. Researchers from the Royal Free and University College Medical School in London studied 4,107 men aged between 60 and 79 years, 713 of whom died during the study's six-year follow-up period. It was found that men with waist circumferences greater than 102 cm and above-average muscle mass were 36 per cent more likely to die than those with smaller waists and bigger-than-average muscles, while those with big bellies and small muscles were at 55 per cent greater mortality risk. BMI, on the other hand, was only linked to mortality among very thin men, who were at increased risk of dying. A man's risk of dying during the study dropped as his muscle mass rose, while both BMI and waist circumference alone showed little relationship to mortality. Combining muscle mass and waist size provided the most accurate gauge of death risk. The findings underscore the importance of life-long fitness. Men who avoided obesity, particularly in the abdominal area, while keeping their muscle mass were more likely to enjoy healthier lives. A combination of a prudent diet (low calorie, low saturated fat and low alcohol) and regular moderate physical activity is required to achieve these ends.